More Flaws in CBO Estimate History

Last week I pointed out clear flaws in the way the Congressional Budget Office analyzed the effect of the Better Care Reconciliation Act, otherwise known as the Senate bill to repeal and replace the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In analyzing three of the most recent legislative efforts to repeal and replace the ACA (otherwise known as Obamacare), the CBO has come out with estimates that are difficult to fathom considering the vast differences in assumptions each estimate makes.

There is apparently another plan that has come out that is really no better than the other plans from what I am hearing from Senator Rand Paul’s objections on the news, and no doubt, the CBO will get around to weighing in on that one too. Why bother though? I don’t doubt that the agency will pick a number, any number, somewhere between 22 and 24 million as their estimate on how many people will “lose” coverage if that particular Senate bill were to pass.

Then that “dire” number will be trumpeted all over the media as those who will be “losing” coverage as a result of that bill. As Avik Roy pointed out in the Forbes article to which I referred in my last blog post, approximately 15 million of those people are not “losing” their insurance, but REJECTING their insurance. The sad aspect of that is, there will still be no insurance to which they can flee, because the only plans allowed will still be Obamacare-type plans. The Senate rejected Senator Ted Cruz’s Consumer Freedom Amendment – more about that in a future blog post.

I would like to once again, demonstrate how faulty the CBO estimates are concerning any issue of coverage or non-coverage whether Obamacare is in effect or not.

Let’s start with the CBO’s estimates in a 2012 report of how many people it predicted would sign up for Obamacare in advance of the sign-ups.

Here is a quote from that March 2012 report by the CBO entitled, “Updated Estimates for The Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act,” (1) regarding how many people would gain coverage through the Obamacare exchanges.

“According to the current estimates, from 2016 on, between 20 million and 23 million people will receive coverage through the new insurance exchanges and 16 million to 17 million people will be enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP.”

So let’s look at how the numbers have actually shaken out so far.

An editorial in The Hill (2) about an early 2017 meeting of the House Budget Committee regarding the failures of Obamacare, says that Ed Haislmaier, senior research fellow with the Heritage Foundation, estimated that only 14 million people gained insurance through the Obamacare exchanges between 2014 and 2015. He added that early estimates of those receiving health insurance through the individual market for 2016 were another 842,028.

Other figures Haislmaier reported were as follows:

  • A decline of 1,128,597 individuals enrolled in fully insured employer health insurance plans.
  • Enrollment in self-insured employer plans increased by 776,780 people.
  • Individuals enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP (Children’s Health Insurance Program) increased by 2,044,809.

So, according to this editorial in The Hill, the approximated number of people that actually gained some form of health coverage in 2016 was 16.5. This number does not even come close to the 20 million to 23 million people the CBO estimated would gain “insurance” through the exchanges.

Clearly, there are no totals for 2017 yet as we are in the middle of the year. However, if the CBO did such a woeful job so far of predicting how many people would be covered from 2016 on, how can we possibly expect that office to provide any believable estimates for how many people might “lose” their insurance as the result of an Obamacare repeal with or without a replacement? Don’t forget that in its estimations of the people that would “lose” their insurance are an approximate 15 million who would not be losing it, but canceling it of their own free will and saying “Good riddance!”

My theory: the numbers that the CBO has been putting out regarding the number of people who would be without “coverage” are merely something the Democrat left and Republicans in Name Only (RINOS) can use as scare tactics – nothing more, just a useful propaganda tool.

Sources for further reading:

  1. http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/03-13-Coverage%20Estimates.pdf
  2. http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/healthcare/320969-debunking-the-20-million-obamacare-myth

 

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