As the Senate is now in the heat of discussions regarding the changes it wants to make to the Republican repeal and replacement of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (more like Unaffordable Care Act), the Congressional Budget Office came out with its estimation a couple of weeks ago of the effect the Senate Bill, which bears the name the Better Care Reconciliation Act, COULD have on the United States overall.
Ever since that publication of the CBO estimates, the Democrats and some Republicans In Name Only, lovingly called RINOS by true conservatives, have been shrieking that somewhere between 22 and 24 million people will lose coverage, depending on with whom one is talking. The Democrats and RINOS throw that number out with the express purpose of making people panic and call their Senators with impassioned pleas not to take away their “health care.”
A Forbes article entitled “CBO Predictions About the Senate Health Care Bill Are Deeply Flawed,” written by Avik Roy (1) explains that the absurdity of the CBO predictions can be demonstrated by the various predictions this “august” government agency has thrown out in reference to three different bills meant to repeal the Unaffordable Care Act in one way or another.
Those three bills include:
- The Restoring Americans’ Freedom Reconciliation Act (H.R. 3762 – 2016)
- The American Health Care Act (2017)
- The Better Care Reconciliation Act (Senate version of the AHCA – 2017)
According to this article, the RAFRA bill, which was intended as a repeal of Obamacare with no replacement, was analyzed by the CBO to cause 22 million Americans to be uninsured by 2026 with no subsidy provisions for coverage.
The article then states that the American Health Care Act, which is the House of Representatives’ version of repealing and replacing Obamacare this year, contains a system of flat tax credits that are not dependent on income. This system of tax credits proposed to spend approximately $375 million over the next 10 years to subsidize the purchase of health insurance. Yet the CBO estimates that, even with that $375 billion in subsidies, there will be 23 million more people without insurance than are currently covered under Obamacare over that 10-year period.
Roy describes the final kicker in these rather strange CBO calculations: the Senate bill that rejected the flat tax credits offered in the AHCA and spends $616 billion for means-tested tax credits over 10 years (which means that these tax credits/subsidies are directed toward low-income people), still results in a coverage loss for 22 million people in comparison to the number that are presently covered. Ironically, it appears that no matter how much money the federal government coughs up to make sure that as many people as possible are covered, there is very little improvement on the numbers of those who would ostensibly “lose” their coverage, at least according to the CBO.
The explanation Roy offers for these rather strange calculations is the individual mandate imposed by Obamacare that requires all U.S. citizens (with few exceptions) to consistently buy health insurance. So the CBO estimates that if the individual mandate is repealed, 15 million people will cancel their health insurance (or that which they are currently stuck with) in 2018. Clearly this is not a case of people being “thrown off” their insurance, but of reveling in the freedom of not being forced to buy insurance that they despise anymore. By my own calculations, this 15 million people is slightly short of 70% of the total amount of people who might be expected to be without health insurance coverage by 2026, and that would be immediately in 2018.
There are some other aspects of these suspect CBO calculations to be considered such as the question of whether 15 million people celebrating their freedom might not acquire some other form of coverage as a substitute for the burdensome Obamacare. What if all the essential benefit mandates were removed as a result of the repeal and replacement of Obamacare and people are free to buy the insurance of their choice?
According to an article by Justin Haskins in “theblaze” (2), Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has proposed an amendment to the Senate bill since the CBO estimates that could provide many people with the flexibility they are looking for. This amendment would allow insurers to offer a wide variety of plan types as long as they offered at least one plan with all the required Obamacare mandates. This is intended to create the ability for insurance companies to offer much more flexible plans and benefits than Obamacare provides. This newly acquired freedom could result in many of those 15 million canceling their expensive plans in favor of lower-cost plans being made available without all the required bells and whistles.
I would conclude, from all I have read so far, that the CBO is making some very loose assumptions with very little qualification that are being used by leftist groups to spread misinformation and panic about the real intent of the Republican proposals to repeal and replace Obamacare.
Sources for further reading:
*I plan on using the next few posts, at least, to analyze the various facets of the debate regarding the proposed repeal and replacement of Obamacare. If you would like to be notified of future posts on the subject, please sign on to my email list to the upper right side of this post, and you will receive any new posts every Thursday morning. I am also planning a new offer in the near future.
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